Operation Forecast

Purpose of Assignment

The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to apply Operations Forecasting.

Assignment Steps

Resources: Microsoft^® Excel^®

USE THE DATA PROVIDED BELOW.

Develop TWO quantitative forecasts(TIME SERIES) using Microsoft^® Excel^®.

• SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE: See page 472, Exhibit 18.4 (Ch 18). Develop only a 3 week moving average for the data shoin in Exhibit 18.4.(caution, I chage the data below). Your text already shows the answers, i.e. the value of 1067 shown for week 4 is the moving average for weeks 1-3, therefore the estimataed forecast for week 4, given actuals of 800,1400, and 1000 is 1067. SO TO MAKE THIS MORE FUN, USE THIS DATA:

WEEK DEMAND 3 WEEK FORECAST

1 900(see, I just added 100 to each value from the exhibit 18.4 chart0

2 1500

3 1100

4 1600 ___________

5 1600 ____________

6 1400 ____________

7 1900 _______________

8 1800 ____________

WHAT IS THE THE 3 WEEK SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE FOR WEEKS 4-8? Complete each week, like exhibit 18.4 through week 8.

• WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE: See example p 448. Keeping the weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1, what is the week 5 weighted moving aveagbe for the data above in this syllabus (900, 1500, 1100, and 1600)? The week 5 weighted moving average ? ___________. How does this compare to the simple moving average you calculated abaove for week 5? Which time series modle do you like best for your operation?

Develop : While you could include a word.doc if you want, the only deliverable is the Excel file showing both the simple and weighted moving average. Start be putting the data into an excel file, then let excel do the work for you to fill in the rest of the the chart. See the formulas provided in the text examples, that should be helpful. If you have questions, use our questions thread so all can see and help.

Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines.(Not required for this assignment)

Click the Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.